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Indonesia’s nickel intermediate capacity is set to surge in 2026 just as ternary cathode growth slows. Cost floors, sulfur constraints, and steady manganese ore pricing hint at bifurcated risk across the battery metals complex.

China is industrializing lithium battery recycling at scale while North America still exports black mass. Tight cobalt units, rising black mass procurement, and second-life ESS are redefining battery raw material supply.

China’s battery supply chain is entering managed consolidation: CATL keeps adding global capacity while mid-tier projects are cancelled, and Beijing moves to restrict lithium battery and graphite anode tech exports.

China’s graphite export controls bite just as LFP precursors scale; expect anode tightness to coexist with robust iron phosphate throughput.

Cobalt tightens on DRC quotas and delayed flows; nickel sulfate costs track matte/MHP dynamics as China’s imports swing.

Europe and the US notch real lithium supply wins as prices steady; localized offtake and DLE projects start to reset Western cost curves.

Manganese sulphate production is rising as NEV demand grows; iron‑phosphate output surged 59 % year‑on‑year thanks to integrated LFP producers. Titan Mining’s Kilbourne project aims to supply ultra‑pure graphite for anodes, and the global black‑mass recycling market is set to nearly double by 2029.

Nickel prices surged as Indonesian strikes tightened supply; battery‑grade nickel sulphate climbed to around 27,800 yuan/tonne. Cobalt output slipped in August but is set to tick up, with prices holding steady.

China’s lithium sector faces subsidy adjustments but strong NEV demand. New projects in China, North America and Europe will expand supply, while a Chinese breakthrough in 600 Wh/kg lithium‑metal batteries hints at future efficiency gains.

Recycled and synthetic anodes gain momentum; sustainable graphite production, black‑mass integration and high‑purity pig iron reshape circular battery materials.