The lithium market is witnessing a complex recalibration. While spot prices for carbonate fluctuate with a slight upward bias, the industry is aggressively positioning for the next technological leap: solid-state batteries. Resource nationalism is reshaping the supply landscape, with Ghana proposing a state-owned monopoly and Chile’s Albemarle advancing direct extraction. This report dissects these pivotal shifts, offering a data-driven outlook on supply constraints and technical milestones from key players like American Lithium and PMET Resources.
The lithium carbonate market exhibited a "falling first then rising" trend this past week, moving largely sideways. Battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 93,500 yuan/mt, a marginal weekly increase of 750 yuan/mt, while industrial-grade prices rose to 91,000 yuan/mt. Futures market sentiment has driven the price center upward, yet actual spot transactions remain sluggish as downstream material plants adopt a cautious, "rigid demand" procurement strategy. Supply continues to grow steadily, with domestic production expected to increase by 3% month-over-month in December. While the market is still destocking, the pace is decelerating compared to November, supported by resilient demand in the NEV and ESS sectors.
HPQ Silicon achieved UN 38.3 certification for its ENDURA+ lithium-ion cells, marking a transition from R&D to commercial viability.
Supply Chain Nationalism and Optimization Resource nationalism is intensifying. The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) in Ghana is urging the government to establish a state-owned "Ghana Lithium Company" to fully control extraction and the value chain, rejecting a 10% royalty deal in favor of deeper national integration. Conversely, in Chile, Albemarle completed verification of its Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) pilot plant with a 94% recovery rate, paving the way for commercial-scale operations that reuse 85% of water.
American Lithium: Initiated the spin-out of its Macusani Uranium Project to unlock value, capitalizing on strong uranium pricing while focusing on its lithium assets.
PMET Resources: Released a Feasibility Study for the CV5 Pegmatite, targeting 800,000 tonnes per annum of spodumene concentrate, positioning it among the top four global producers.
Liontown Resources: Secured a binding offtake with Canmax for 150,000 mt of spodumene annually, linking pricing to the spodumene index to ensure fair value realization.
Neutral to Bullish: The lithium market is finding a short-term floor. While supply continues to enter the market, the slowing pace of destocking and resilient end-user demand suggest price stability. The strategic shift toward solid-state materials and efficient extraction technologies (DLE) indicates a long-term bullish outlook for tech-forward producers, though short-term gains may be capped by downstream caution.